50% hit rate. World class – or just two shots?
Data LiteracyPublished 13 September 20260 views
- A striker takes two shots at goal. One goes in. 50%. Sounds like Champions League level.
- Until we ask: How many shots were there?
- The same thing happens in production: after a parameter change, ten parts are inspected. Nine are good; before, it was eight.
- So: scrap cut in half!
- Maybe. Or maybe it was simply chance.
- Because 1 out of 2 and 50 out of 100 produce the same percentage – but statistically they tell two completely different stories.
- A percentage without a sample size is like the league table after the first matchday: correct, but not a reliable basis for decision-making.
- Two shots do not make a world-class striker. Ten parts do not yet make a capable process.
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