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50% hit rate – world class or just two shots?

50% hit rate. World class – or just two shots?

  • A striker takes two shots at goal. One goes in. 50%. Sounds like Champions League level.
  • Until we ask: How many shots were there?
  • The same thing happens in production: after a parameter change, ten parts are inspected. Nine are good; before, it was eight.
  • So: scrap cut in half!
  • Maybe. Or maybe it was simply chance.
  • Because 1 out of 2 and 50 out of 100 produce the same percentage – but statistically they tell two completely different stories.
  • A percentage without a sample size is like the league table after the first matchday: correct, but not a reliable basis for decision-making.
  • Two shots do not make a world-class striker. Ten parts do not yet make a capable process.
  • Find out more about Data Literacy and reliable data-driven decision-making on our homepage.

50% hit rate. World class – or just two shots? | Stemann Consulting